My 2023 Oscar Predictions

There was a time, about a decade ago, wherein I followed the film awards race more closely. I obsessed over every precursor, writing articles about the various guilds and critics bodies and their selections celebrating the supposed best in cinema that the prior year had to offer. I consider myself more of a casual observer now; interested, intrigued, but less hyper-focused. Still, I have kept an eye on this year's race, I have seen the films, I have taken notice of the gossip and the politics and I feel fairly comfortable taking a crack at my predictions for what may get Oscar nominated this upcoming Tuesday, January 24th.

For each category I will pick the 5 selections I think are most likely to get nominated, and one alternate that has a shot to slip in. I expect to be wrong on a lot of this, but that's part of the fun! I will be refraining from the 3 short categories: Animated Short, Live Action Short, and Documentary Short.

Here we go...



Best Picture

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

The Banshees of Inisherin

Top Gun: Maverick

Elvis

Tár

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Triangle of Sadness

The Whale


Alternate: Women Talking


Best Director

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Todd Field, Tár

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front


Alternate: Baz Luhrmann, Elvis


Best Actor

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Austin Butler, Elvis

Bill Nighy, Living

Paul Mescal, Aftersun


Alternate: Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto


Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans


Alternate: Ana de Armas, Blonde


Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse


Alternate: Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans


Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Hong Chau, The Whale

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once


Alternate: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (I said what I said!)


Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Aftersun


Alternate: Triangle of Sadness


Best Adapted Screenplay

Women Talking

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

All Quiet on the Western Front

Living

She Said


Alternate: The Whale


Best Animated Feature

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell With Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Wendell and Wild


Alternate: Inuh-Oh


Best International Feature

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Decision to Leave

Close

EO


Alternate: The Quiet Girl


Best Production Design

Elvis

Babylon

Avatar: The Way of Water

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Everything Everywhere All at Once


Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front


Best Cinematography

Top Gun: Maverick

Elvis

All Quiet on the Western Front

Empire of Light

Babylon


Alternate: The Fabelmans


Best Costume Design

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Babylon

The Woman King


Alternate: Living


Best Film Editing

Top Gun: Maverick

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Elvis

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Fabelmans


Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water


Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Elvis

The Whale

The Batman

All Quiet on the Western Front

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever


Alternate: Blonde


Best Sound

Top Gun: Maverick

Elvis

Avatar: The Way of Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever


Alternate: Everything Everywhere All at Once


Best Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

The Batman


Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front


Best Original Score

Babylon

The Fabelmans

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

The Banshees of Inisherin

Women Talking


Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front


Best Original Song

Naatu Naatu, RRR

Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick

Ciao Papa, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Applause, Tell It Like a Woman


Alternate: New Body Rhumba, White Noise


Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

Fire of Love

All the Beauty and Bloodshed

Descendant

Navalny


Alternate: Retrograde